Core VS Casual: Who’s Really the Industry Saver?

I don’t know if you’ve heard the news or not, but the economy is in a bit of a rough patch. During these uncertain times the videogame industry has to be at least a little concerned since it’s an industry based entirely on leisure activities. There are, however, many murmurs of the possibility that the industry and/or certain contenders therein are “recession proof”. The truth of such a statement is not the purpose of this post. No, instead I propose to take a look at just which consumers are most likely to see the industry through this period of unrest.

As anyone who isn’t living under a rock knows, the Nintendo Wii is doing quite well. It would appear that the appeal Nintendo made to the casual user has paid off in proverbial spades, landing them atop the console pile. Many people are suggesting that this trend is a boon for the industry as a whole, including Michael Pachter (a market analyst), who claimed in a recent episode of Gametrailers’ Bonus Round that the Wii would break down the stigma surrounding videogames for the casual market and move gaming from a niche into a broader, more successful, money maker.^* Mr. Pachter is not the only one. There are many who mark this success as the end of the hard-core gamer as the foundation of the industry. Leigh Alexander wrote in her blog at SexyVideogameland how EA didn’t receive financial success for giving core gamers the innovation they asked for. That post in particular got me started on a post about how the core had lost the ear of the producers since they failed to use their buying power to affect the market.

Since then, however, I’ve started to change my way of thinking. Given our commencement down the slippery slope of recession, will these trends maintain? Yes, the Wii did prove in November that it could still sell ridiculous numbers, but is that enough? Of course it is for Nintendo, but I don’t think it is for everyone else. You must remember that the top-selling games for the Wii are first-party and that leaves a lot of people out in the cold. In addition, the only software that is selling in comparison with the AAA titles for other consoles is actually peripherals bundled with software. While Nintendo is showing that it can build huge install bases it has yet to prove that it can do anything with that install base.

And I think that’s the centre of the problem. Ms. Alexander wrote another post about how many people regret their Wii and let it collect dust. Pachter claimed that Geoff Keighley (the host of Bonus Round) would get a raise since his viewership would increase with the bourgeoning casual market. I don’t think so. As this article at Kotaku points out, the problem with casual gaming is the “casual” part. Many Wii’s are finding their ways into homes where they will go unused, or perhaps software, the bulk of the industry, is purchased rarely and in small quantities. Remember, shovel-ware, that delightful mini-game market the Wii has so much of, sells in minuscule quantities compared with even A let alone AAA titles. Real software sales can often be attributed to hard-core gamers who will buy, beg, or steal in order to get that new release, and I think that the industry would do well to remember it.

There was a post back in July at Gamerscore Blog which I feel does a good job in summing up how many core gamers feel about the current state of the market. In short: they’re frustrated and feel abused. There are fewer and fewer developers and publishers who seek to deliver a truly next-gen experience for the core demographic. With the Rock Band, Wii, and iPhone^@ casual game industries the people who built the foundation of current gaming are now feeling neglected.

Why should companies care? Because it’s this core group who will see them through to the other side of the recession. These gamers won’t neglect their consoles. They won’t use their Xbox only as a DVD player or only drag out the controllers once-in-a-while to amuse a few friends. These gamers will cut back on food to make sure they can get that new release, and as a consequence will make sure that companies like EA can keep the heat on through the winter. There has been a lot of talk about EA’s cutbacks but I think they’re on the right track, and ultimately I think they’ll be rewarded for it. I have a feeling that when we emerge on the other side of this downswing we will find that the innovative titles and franchises are what created tangible profits.

At least that’s what I hope. In the end only time will tell.

_{*I am of course paraphrasing.
@In the last two days I have heard from two separate sources about iPhone gaming, and they say the same thing: the iPhone has potential, but it won’t stand up for play more than 30 minutes and the battery will be devoured almost as fast. Given that we don’t forgive such failure on handhelds such as the DS and PSP, I don’t know how people can begin to overlook that on their phone/PDA.}